国际石油价格从1998年到2000年大幅度波动，呈现V型运动形态。本文通过建立一个带有理性预期的供给和需求模型，在市场出清的条件下，对此次的石油价格波动作出了一个初步的解释。与现有的对石油价格解释的模型比较，本文明确采用理性预期的假设，通过对供给和需求之间的动态反应分析，以期对此次价格的波动加以解释。亚洲的金融危机作为一种外生性的冲击，结果导致亚洲的收入水平发生大幅波动，从而使得亚洲的石油需求随之大幅波动，辅之以石油生产国根据预期价格决定生产的条件，就会导致石油价格的大幅波动。

 

关键词：收入冲击 石油价格 石油供给 石油需求 理性预期

Abstract

There was a huge oil price fluctuation from 1998 to 2000. What made the oil price such movements? In this paper, a model with rational expectation will be set up to explain the phenomenon, under the assumption of market clearing and the dynamic interaction between oil demand and oil supply. Compared with the available literatures, the assumption of rational expectation is adopted, and through the analysis on the dynamic interaction between oil supply and oil demand, a new explanation is given about the oil price fluctuation. The financial crisis in Asia as an exogenous impulse leads to the fluctuation in the Asian income and the oil demand. When the producers decide their output level according to the expected price, the oil price will fluctuate great.

 

Keywords: Oil demand, Oil supply, Oil price, Income impulse, Rational Expectation